Waiting for “Peak Oil.” And waiting. And waiting. And waiting.

As I wrote in a book I published over 25 years ago (https://www.amazon.com/Guardians-Gulf-Americas-Expanding-1883-1992/dp/0684871068), according to our experts, we’ve been running on a 20-year supply of oil since . . . 1920! That’s right! We’ve been told since 1920 that we only had a 20-year-supply of petroleum before we would exhaust the Earth’s oil resources! Do the math. This is one of the reasons that I distrust “experts.” Paul Ehrlich, who is now a Global Warming advocate, wrote in a book I had to read in college (1970) that all the oil would be exhausted by about 1980. In the late 1970s, a professor in one of my graduate classes told us that all the oil would be gone by 2000. And here we are in 2018 outproducing Saudi Arabia!

Peak oil theory was invented in the year 1956 by the American geologist M. King Hubbert.  Hubbert predicted that oil production in the U.S. would peak sometime between 1965 and 1970.  Hubbert’s model was apparently validated in the early 1970s, when production began to decline.  The theory became gospel for a generation of geologists.  When oil prices collapsed to near $10 a barrel in late 1998, it gave some of us pause.  But by the summer of 2008, oil prices in the neighborhood of $150 a barrel seemed to validate Hubbert’s predictions of scarcity.  In 2010, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman proclaimed that “peak oil has arrived.”

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